Frankenstorm på gång

Det är ju blåsigt här också, men i USA förbereder man sig för orkanen Sandy eller “the Frankenstorm”. När man läser mailet ocjh tittar på de olika sajterna så inser man hur allvarligt det är…

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COMMANDERS WEATHER CORPORATION
DATE: Sunday, October 28, 2012
TIME: 1300edt

Hurricane Sandy

Summary…

1) At 1100edt Sun, Hurricane Sandy was located near 32.5N/72.6W or 250 miles SE of Cape Hatteras and 575 miles S of NYC

2) General movement is toward NE (045) at 14 mph
a) this motion is expected to continue today,

3) Top sustained winds near 75 mph w/higher gusts in squalls/t-storms, which hurricane force winds now extend out up to 175 miles from the center
a) tropical storm force winds extend out 520 miles from the center
b) so this is a very large storm system!!!

4) Minimum central pressure is down to 951 mb (28.08 in), which is 9 mb lower from 0500 edt this morning.
a) some strengthening possible in next 24-30 hrs before making landfall, but
b) Sandy will be transitioning into a powerful extra-tropical (nor’easter) type storm system

5) Overall, don’t see any significant change in the track and intensity of Sandy, during the next 24-36 hrs before making landfall
a) though may be just a tab faster, making landfall along central NJ coast during evening

6) Model guidance is still in good agreement with Sandy moving NE into this evening, then turning more N overnight and then N-NW to NW by Mon AM
a) a turn more W-NW is expected midday Mon, which
b) Sandy is expected to make landfall near the central NJ coast Mon evening, again just a little faster!!

7) No matter the exact track, sandy will have an historic impact on the NE coast with the worse conditions mainly Mon PM into Mon night

8) A storm surge up to 6-8 ft is expected from northern NJ coast into LI sound to Block Island sound to Cape Cod and Islands
a) a 4-6 ft surge will occur over eastern MASS, NH and Maine coasts

9) Max rainfall amounts will be mostly in the mid-Atlantic region, from eastern VA into MD, DE into southern PA
a) up to 6-12 inches possible, but
b) will be lesser amounts to N, 3-6 inches NYC area to 2-4 inches across much western New England
c) 1-2 inches or less possible for eastern MA into Maine

10) After making landfall, Sandy will continue moving W and weaken into southern PA by Tue AM

11) With Sandy off to the W, there will be a strong SE to S-SE flow into Tue AM, then greater improvements in conditions in the PM

12) Remnants of Sandy continue weaken and meanders around thru late Tue into Wed, then lifts N and NE during Wed and Thu
a) Brisk SW flow along most of the NE coast, and
b) There will continue to scattered areas of squally showers around

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION…HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY…DELAWARE
BAY…AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA…NEW
JERSEY…THE NEW YORK CITY AREA…LONG ISLAND…CONNECTICUT…AND
RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS…THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY…AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA…THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

Expected impacts from Sandy

Coastal Maine and E coast of Mass…NE to ENE winds will increase late tonight and Mon morning. NE-E winds will peak late Mon afternoon and evening, just before the winds shift to E and ESE. Wind gusts to 60-65 kts possible along the ME coast, 65-70 kts along the NH coast and up to 70-80 kts along the MA coast. The storm surge and large waves will arrive Mon evening – this will force tides to run 4-6 feet above normal. Keep in mind, this is a long duration storm, so at least 2 high tide cycles will cause serious coastal flooding with the worst occurring Mon night.

ESE and SE winds will still be blowing 20-40 kts Tue morning, but will be improving Tue afternoon/

Cape Cod/Islands to Newport..NE to ENE winds will be increasing this afternoon and tonight. Winds will be blowing 30-50 kts by Mon morning. Peak wind speeds will occur late Mon afternoon and evening, just before the winds shift to ESE and SE. Winds will frequently gust to 70-90 kts late Mon afternoon into evening. The seas will be gradually increasing tonight and Mon morning, so the tides will have a problem diminishing after high tide. Storm surge and large waves arrive late Mon afternoon and evening with tides up to 5-7 feet above normal Cape Cod and the Islands to Block Island Sound. The Tue morning/mid-day high tide will also run 2-4 feet above normal. Tides in Narragansett Bay and Buzzards will not see the full effect of the wind waves on top of the surge, but even in the Narragansett Bay and Buzzards tides will run 2-4 feet above normal Mon night and 1-3 feet above normal Tue morning/mid-day.

Long Island Sound…A very serious coastal flood problem will be developing Mon afternoon and night. In addition, tides will be reluctant to fall after high tide until Tue morning. Tides could run 6-8 feet above normal, especially Mon afternoon and evening, which will also coincide with the strongest winds, where gusts to 70-90 kts are possible. In addition, there will be 3-6 inches of rain Mon afternoon and night. Winds and tides will finally improve Tue afternoon and night, but 2 high tide cycles could cause serious problems from Mon afternoon into Tue morning.

Chesapeake Bay…N winds will increase tonight. N-NW winds will peak at 40-60 kts Mon afternoon and evening. But…NW winds 25-35+ kts will also occur Mon morning and later Mon night into Tue morning. There will be an extended period of strong NW-W winds. In addition, 5-10 inches of rain is possible late tonight and thru Mon.

The next statement will be issued around 1800edt Sunday.

CURRENT POSITION
Date Time Lat Long Movement Wind Gust Press Position
EDT N W Mph Mph mph MB
Sun 10/28 1100 32.5 72.6 NE 14 75 90 951 250 mi SE Cape Hatteras

FORECAST TRACK
Date Time Lat Long Movement Wind Gust Pres Position
EDT N W Mph Mph mph MB
Sun, 10/28 1400 33.0 72.2 NE 13 70 85 950 400 mi SE Atlantic City
Sun, 10/28 2000 33.7 71.4 NNE 10 70 85 949 375 mi SE Atlantic City
Mon, 10/29 0800 36.0 70.7 NW 15 75 90 948 275 mi SE Atlantic City
Mon 10/29 1400 38.0 71.3 NW 20 75 90 948 180 mi ESE Atlantic City
Mon, 10/29 2000 39.7 73.3 WNW 22 75 90 948 75 mi NE Atlantic City
Tue, 10/30 0200 40.0 75.5 W 12 50 75 952 Near Philadelphia
Tue, 10/30 0800 39.7 77.4 W-SW 6 45 65 965 40 mi NW Baltimore
Tue, 10/30 2000 40.2 78.0 N-NW 6 35 50 975 Nr Harrisburg, PA
Wed, 10/31 0800 42.0 78.2 N-NW 8 30 45 985 Just NE of Bradford, PA
Wed, 10/31 2000 43.0 78.0 N 6 30 45 994 Just SE of Buffalo, NY

PAST POSITIONS
Date Time Lat Long Movement Wind Gust Press Position
EDT N W mph mph mph MB
Mon 10/22 1700 13.0 78.5 stationary 40 50 999 360 mi SSW of Kingston, Jamaica
Tue 10/23 0500 1330 78.6 N 3 45 55 998 345 mi SSW of Kingston, Jamaica
Wed 10/24 0500 16.3 77.0 N 14 70 80 986 120 mi S of Kingston, Jamaica
Wed 10/24 1100 17.1 76.7 NNE13 80 90 973 65 mi S of Kingston, Jamaica
Thu 10/24 1700 18.3 76.6 N14 80 90 970 25 mi NNE of Kingston, Jamaica
Thu 10/25 0500 20.9 75.8 N 18 105 120 960 40 mi E of Holguin, Cuba
Thu 10/25 1100 22.4 75.5 N 16 105 120 964 65 mi SSW of Long Island, Bahamas
Thu 10/25 1700 24.5 75.6 N 20 105 964 Near Cat Island in the Bahamas
Fri 10/26 0500 26.3 76.9 NW 13 80 90 968 15 mi ESE of Great Abaco
Fri 10/26 1100 26.7 76.9 N 6 80 90 970 25 mi NNE of Great Abaco
Sat 10/27 0500 28.6 76.7 NNE 10 70 80 969 350 mi SE Charleston, SC
Sat 10/27 1100 29.0 76.0 NNE 9 75 85 958 355 mi SE Charleston, SC
Sun 10/28 0500 31.9 73.3 NE 13 75 90 960 260 mi SSE Cape Hatteras
Sun 10/28 1100 32.5 72.6 NE 14 75 90 951 250 mi SE Cape Hatteras