SeaPilot 2 Star – fågelskydd
Dagens läsarfråga för er som följer Seapilot 2 Star:
Tjena, många båtar i fågelskyddsområde vid grässkär.
Tänker protestera.
Vilken regel är mest tillämplig?
Blog
Model Accuracy – vilken GRIB är bäst?
När man seglar längre race på havet, så blir det ju viktigt att kunna analysera vädret på rätt sött.
Vi har ju fått massor av verktyg de senaste åren, och tillgången till bra väderinformation ökar hela tiden. Och routing-funktionalitet finns inte bara i avancerade program som Adrena eller Expedition, utan i många appar och nya plotters.
Men tillgång till data leder inte automatiskt till bättre beslut… Det vet alla vi som har tittat på en färgglad animation av ett vädersystem som inte alls stämmer med verkligheten.
Och det blir inte lättare när man har 3-4 högupplösta GRIB-filer.
Men väder är också något som lämpar sig otroligt bra för moderna analys-metoder. Många datapunkter och bra möljlighet att jämföra med verkligt utfall.
Det är just detta som Model Accuracy försöker göra: jämföra GRIB-filer från olika källor för att avgöra vilken som stämmer bäst med verkligheten. Detta har man ju gjort manuellt genom att följa vädret veckan innan race, men nu kan man få statistikhjälp i detta arbete.
Jag roade mig med att ladda ner några vädermodeller i fredags och låta Expedition logga verkkligt väder i Långedrag från fredag 15:14 till lördag samma tid.
Här ser man faktiskt barometertryck (den översta linjen) och de olika modellerna. Ingen större skillnad. Även om ingen har fångat fenomenet på lördagen…
Här är TWD (vindriktning).
Här ser man att både den tyska ICON-modellen (orange) och den Franska Arpege (lila) fångar upp denm längre rörelsen. Alla är bra de första 6 timmarna, men sedan diffar detr ganska mycket. Värt att notera är skillnaden på de två bästa modellerna på 9-16 grader. Kan bero på hur de hangterar landeffekter, men det kan också vara ett generellt fel som man skulle kunna kompensera för i en routing.
‘Samma sak med TWS (vindstyrka). Här är båda franbsmännen (lila) och HIRLAM (grå) bra med i matchen.
Nedan den info man får från analysen. Man kan ju diskuera värdet av att poängsätta olika modeller, men jag tycker man får bra insikt i vad som skiljer dem åt. Och som vanligt så behöver man ju lägga en del jobb för att sånt här skall bli bra, men jag kan definitiuvt se detta som ett värdefullt verktyg framöver.
ALL_GRIBS mode
Analysis start: 2019/05/24 15:14 Analysis end: 2019/05/25 15:14 Granularity: 00:01:00GC_FMI_HIRLAM_2: Earliest GRIB step used:
Races\test2\MAData\GribCSVFiles\GC_FMI_HIRLAM_2\GC_FMI_HIRLAM_2_20190524_1200_003
Updates 01:00 to 01:00 hh:mm apart. GRIB data point resolution 2.2 to 4.1 nm apart.
TWS: Trend correlation 75%, RMS error 3.2, Average error 1.3 knots below log data. Calibrate +1.3 knots.
TWD: Trend correlation 36%, RMS error 38.4, Average error 6.9 degrees right of log data. Calibrate -6.9 degrees.
BAR: Trend correlation 97%, RMS error 1.6, Average error 1.5 bar below log data. Calibrate +1.5 bar.
MA error : 3.89GC_GCWF_2: Earliest GRIB step used:
Races\test2\MAData\GribCSVFiles\GC_GCWF_2\GC_GCWF_2_20190524_0600_009
Updates 01:00 to 01:00 hh:mm apart. GRIB data point resolution 3.2 to 6.0 nm apart.
TWS: Trend correlation 72%, RMS error 3.2, Average error 1.4 knots below log data. Calibrate +1.4 knots.
TWD: Trend correlation 32%, RMS error 38.7, Average error 9.0 degrees right of log data. Calibrate -9.0 degrees.
BAR: Trend correlation 95%, RMS error 2.3, Average error 2.3 bar below log data. Calibrate +2.3 bar.
MA error : 3.86GC_GFS_2: Earliest GRIB step used:
Races\test2\MAData\GribCSVFiles\GC_GFS_2\GC_GFS_2_20190524_0600_009
Updates 01:00 to 01:00 hh:mm apart. GRIB data point resolution 7.9 to 15.0 nm apart.
TWS: Trend correlation None, RMS error 12.9, Average error 12.2 knots below log data. Calibrate +12.2 knots.
TWD: Trend correlation None, RMS error 117.1, Average error 66.0 degrees right of log data. Calibrate -66.0 degrees.
BAR: Trend correlation 92%, RMS error 3.2, Average error 3.2 bar below log data. Calibrate +3.2 bar.
MA error : 21.26GC_ICON_EU_2: Earliest GRIB step used:
Races\test2\MAData\GribCSVFiles\GC_ICON_EU_2\GC_ICON_EU_2_20190524_1200_003
Updates 01:00 to 01:00 hh:mm apart. GRIB data point resolution 2.0 to 3.8 nm apart.
TWS: Trend correlation 57%, RMS error 5.5, Average error 4.2 knots below log data. Calibrate +4.2 knots.
TWD: Trend correlation 76%, RMS error 27.3, Average error 9.0 degrees right of log data. Calibrate -9.0 degrees.
BAR: Trend correlation 98%, RMS error 1.6, Average error 1.5 bar below log data. Calibrate +1.5 bar.
MA error : 6.36GC_M…T…O-FRANCE_9: Earliest GRIB step used:
Races\test2\MAData\GribCSVFiles\GC_M…T…O-FRANCE_9\GC_M…T…O-FRANCE_9_20190524_0000_015
Updates 01:00 to 01:00 hh:mm apart. GRIB data point resolution 3.2 to 6.0 nm apart.
TWS: Trend correlation 80%, RMS error 2.9, Average error 0.2 knots above log data. Calibrate -0.2 knots.
TWD: Trend correlation 72%, RMS error 34.2, Average error 15.7 degrees right of log data. Calibrate -15.7 degrees.
BAR: Trend correlation 98%, RMS error 2.2, Average error 2.1 bar below log data. Calibrate +2.1 bar.
MA error : 3.49YR_SKAGGERAK_WEATHER_2: Earliest GRIB step used:
Races\test2\MAData\GribCSVFiles\YR_SKAGGERAK_WEATHER_2\YR_SKAGGERAK_WEATHER_2_20190524_1200_003
Updates 01:00 to 01:00 hh:mm apart. GRIB data point resolution 1.6 to 3.0 nm apart.
TWS: Trend correlation 62%, RMS error 6.3, Average error 5.3 knots below log data. Calibrate +5.3 knots.
TWD: Trend correlation 20%, RMS error 50.7, Average error 7.6 degrees left of log data. Calibrate +7.6 degrees.
BAR: Trend correlation 97%, RMS error 2.3, Average error 2.3 bar below log data. Calibrate +2.3 bar.
MA error : 8.12ModelAccuracy recommends GC_M…T…O-FRANCE_9, with a Model Accuracy Error of 3.49
Analysis settings:
Log data source EXPEDITION
Raw log directory C:\Users\peter\Dropbox\Blur Expedition Data\Model A\Logs
Raw GRIB directory C:\Users\peter\Dropbox\Blur Expedition Data\Model A\Gribs
Wind direction type True
Masthead height 18.0m
Data smoothing window 60s
Analysis mode ALL_GRIBS
Analysis start time 2019/05/24 15:14
Analysis window size 24:00 hh:mm
Analysis end time 2019/05/25 15:14
Analysis granularity 60s
Henri Lloyd – Old Brand – Brand New
Sjukt kul att Henri Lloyd ny-lanseras med bas i Sverige.
Och att Marstrand Big Boat Race är det första event där vi kommer att få se nya serien på riktigt.
Henri Lloyd is one of just a handful of true British heritage brands. Through relentless innovation the brand became famous in supplying protective clothing to the early
pioneers of global circumnavigation. Right now, Henri Lloyd is going through another revolutionary phase of its incredible history:We are in the midst of an exciting process where we are re-positioning the Henri Lloyd brand for the future. There are a number of key principles that we strongly believe in and will follow in order that we position the brand concept to be highly successful in the contemporary retail setting, whilst respecting the great things that have gone before.
As part of the development of the brand a new clean logo will be introduced that symbolises a return to the brands heritage, whilst also representing a fresh start for the journey ahead.
Chairman and controlling shareholder Hans Eckerström explains;
Firstly, we have looked deeply and respectfully into the history of our brand – the aim has been to reconnect with our heritage and focus on striving to produce the best sailing gear in the world.
Importantly we believe that there is a significant opportunity for the brand to thrive in the wider market through the development of our apparel range. In order to achieve our full potential, we must again position the Henri Lloyd name as being highly exclusive and we will always be very selective about where the product can be bought and which brands it sits alongside.We fully recognise that the retail landscape has changed and will continue to change therefore we will ensure that Henri Lloyd is seen where our customers are, both digitally and physically.”
CEO Magnus Liljeblad continues: “We are proud to say that we will be a digital first company. Equally we passionately believe in building deep relationships with selected retailers in order that we can build mutually profitable business together. Our new technology platform will also allow us to collaborate in unique and ground breaking ways with our retail partners.
In order that we can position Henri Lloyd exclusively we will not compete on price as a main selling point and as such our distribution channels and pricing will reflect this. In practical terms this means we estimate that we will be dealing with 80% less retailers than in the past and so allow us to focus 100% on selected key relationships, which we believe will be critical to success.
It is without doubt an exciting time for all concerned with the brand and it is important that we move forward ensuring we are true to our values. Henri Lloyd has always had a conscience and we will build further on this, it is our pledge that whilst we grow we will strive for sustainability and engage ourselves for a better world. This is a theme that we will build upon and talk more about the future.”
Tjugo IC37 på linjen om en vecka
Imponerande projekt. Och ett modernt sätt att tänka kring mixade besättningar (klassregler) och olika sätt att hålla nere kostnaderna.
Hade man bott i Newport hade man haft en sån här!
FROM CONCEPT TO REALITY: THE MELGES IC37 CLASS
ZENDA, Wis. (May 21, 2019) — The Melges IC37 Class has transformed from concept to reality. On Friday, May 31, 20 boats will converge on the starting line for the very first time.
The fleet of 20 New York Yacht Club (NYYC) owned boats has left the two factories, Westerly Marine and FIBRE Mechanics. Now that the initial fleet has been delivered, the builders are now working to construct the privately-owned boats, purchased around the world.
“We are proud of the build quality, the design, and the equipment chosen for this project,” says International Melges IC37 Class President Phil Lotz, “but more importantly, we are proud to bring a visionary concept forward in the sailing world, creating more joy in the sport through a strong class that simplifies sailing and limits the arms race.”
The Melges IC37 Class features strict class rules designed to enrich the sailing experience for Corinthian sailors around the world. The rules require coed amateur crews, limit teams to a single set of one-design sails, provide incentives for youth participation, eliminate costly masthead wind instruments, restrict private regatta coaching and mandate a simple tuning matrix managed solely by mast step shims.
The inaugural year of IC37 one-design racing will feature one-design competition at seven regattas in Newport, R.I. followed by a winter series in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. The 20-boat fleet of NYYC boats, chartered to members, will line up for the first time during the first weekend in June. It will be a rewarding sight for all involved in the class development and a heartening spectacle for everyone who appreciates big boat one-design competition. Learning will be a priority this summer. Teams are just starting to become fully formed, and the focus will be on refining skills, tactics, boat handling, and maneuvers. But the strict one-design nature of the class should help each team quickly conquer the learning curve associated with any new boat.
The training weekends with class-sponsored North Sails coaching will be followed by the Leukemia Cup, the NYYC 165th Annual Regatta, the NYYC One-Design Regatta, the Sail Newport Regatta, and the Queen’s Cup. The two highlights of the season certainly will be the Melges IC37 East Coast Championship July 15 to 20, held during the NYYC 175th Anniversary Regatta, and the inaugural Melges IC37 U.S. National Championship, September 27 to 29.
The Melges IC37 Class will set up shop in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., for the winter. The Lauderdale Yacht Club will host the Melges IC37 Winter Series, comprised of three regattas in November, February, and March.
While the Melges IC37 Class has yet to hold an official class competition, it has become evident that all the project partners have created something profoundly important for the sport. For both men and women. For young and not so young. For boat owners and crews alike. The Melges IC37 Class was created for sailors who race for the love and joy of the sport. It was created to make possible what many sailors seek: the opportunity to test their preparation, skill, and teamwork on the most level playing field available.
Surviving The Middle
Snygg film från Middle Sea Race.
An extraordinary, exciting and at times hazardous experience, in 2018 we pulled together a youthful team to taken on the challenging 50th Anniversary Rolex Middle Sea Race on our Pogo 12.50, Hermes.
From becalming seas to electrical storms, the team faced the fierce Mediterranean Sea head on. Like most adventures, it started with inspiration & finish inspired, and everything in the middle came down to hard work. It is in the middle that the team is pushed to our limit and beyond — where we must dig deep to overcome, survive and finish the massive challenge that we set out to accomplish.
Join us and our partners Mustang Survival on an incredible journey through the Middle Sea… buckle up, it’s a wet ride!! #survivethemiddle
Tipstack till Magnus Hansson.
Sweet… MD75 Karma
Sjysst dagsseglare…